NFL DFS Week 4 licks and #SleeperValue picks πŸ”₯

October 3, 2020

**GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY – THIS IS FANTASY FOOTBALL, BUT IF YOU’RE SPENDING MONEY, IT’S GAMBLING**

(For new players, I recommend low money games with smaller numbers of users. This increases your win percentage while you learn how you like to build lineups)

DraftKings gives you a $50,000 budget to construct a classic Fantasy Football lineup QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/FLEX/DEF – no Kickers (sorry @misslindel).

I like to think, whatever a player’s salary is – try to pick players who will bring triple return on investment. For example, if WR Curtis Conway is listed at $5,000, I’m hoping for AT LEAST 15 points that week. This way you are aiming for a total score of 150, that you should cash in most games you enter.

Doesn’t always work out, but that’s why they play the games!

Let’s get started.

Top Dollar DFS NFL picks

QB

  • Deshaun Watson: $6600 – Watson has faced one of the toughest early season schedules that I can remember (KC, BAL, PIT). The Vikings DEF has not been good, at all, and should allow Watson to have his 2020 coming out party. Minnesota’s 29 percent pressure rate ranks as middle of the pack which has led to them getting absolutely TORCHED on deep throws. I expect Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks, to have a nice game and you could pair either with Deshaun Watson.
  1. Deep left – 2/8 (25 percent) for 87 yards
  2. Deep middle – 4/4 (100 percent) for 148 yards
  3. Deep right – 6/9 (66.67 percent) for 202 yards
    (stats taken from NFLSavant).
  • Joe Burrow: $6300 – The story with Burrow thus far is that he has struggled when throwing the ball deep and has to run for his life. According to Pro Football Focus, the JAX Defense has the 8th lowest Sack Conversion Rate at 10 percent. This should allow Burrow to get more comfortable and continue to develop his deep game. Burrow has displayed excellent accuracy in the quick game. That happens to be another weakness within this JAX defense.
  1. Short left – 23/31 (74.19 percent) for 241 yards
  2. Short middle – 20/24 (83.33 percent) for 173 yards
  3. Short right – 23/31 (74.19 percent) for 246 yards
    Stats taken from NFLSavant

RB

  • Alvin Kamara: $8000 – Through 3 weeks Alvin Kamara has compiled 438 total yards & six TDs. Kamara already was receiving the lion’s share of targets in NO with a ridiculous 32.38 percent target share. This ludicrous trend will look to continue due to the team’s injuries. He has also received 9 rushes in the RZ (the same number as Latavius Murray). The matchup with Detriot is juicy under normal circumstances, so, I believe this will be another monster week for AK41.
  • Nick Chubb: $7000 – I never understood the Twitter community who was claiming Chubb was CLE’s RB2. This dude is an absolute work horse and may be the best pure runner in the NFL. The Dallas defense has been pretty good against the run this season, so this doesn’t look like a sparkling matchup at first glance. Kareem Hunt is unlikely to play. That should mean more work for Chubb.

WR

  • Cooper Kupp: $6700 – Kupp ranks as PFF’s seventh-rated WR through three weeks with an 81.3 grade. 61 percent of his routes are from the slot and he matches up with NYG Slot CB Darnay Holmes (32.5 PFF grade). This presents PFF’s biggest WR/CB matchup advantage, with a +73 percent matchup advantage in favor of Kupp. The second highest is 60 percent so this is a juicy matchup. Kupp & Robert Woods tie for the team lead with a 23.53 percent target share.
  • Mike Evans: $6400 – With Chris Godwin already ruled out and Scotty Miller nursing an injury, this could be another big day for Mike Evans. When Godwin missed Week 2, Evans received a 29 percent target share and I think TB will try to use him more in the slot with LAC Slot CB Chris Harris Jr. ruled out for Sunday. Through three weeks, Evans has been balanced where he aligns within the TB offense, lining up as LWR/SLWR/RWR 34%/34%/32%.
  • Odell Beckham Jr: $5800 – Odell Beckham Jr. has a ridiculous 32.1 percent target share including 26 total targets. In what should be a high scoring game, I’m looking for Beckham to have himself a BIG game after struggling to convert targets into receptions – only a 42.31 completion percentage when thrown to this season. When something doesn’t work, try & try again.

TE

  • Mike Gesicki: $5100 – Gesicki is PFF’s top rated TE in 2020 with an overall grade of 89.8. He has a great matchup vs SEA who will surely be leading for most of the game. He’s been targeted on 22 percent of his total routes run with a 60 completion percentage when thrown to (12/20). The Penn St. grad also has the highest target share percentage on the MIA offense – 21.28 percent. With Gesicki running only five percent of his routes from the inline TE position and 78 percent from the slot, I don’t think Seattle will have as easy a time slowing him down.
  • TJ Hockenson: $4800 – The Saints are absolutely BRUTAL defending the TE position. The NO secondary is banged up, but I believe there will be plenty of points to go around in a potential shootout. Hockenson has converted 13/18 targets this season. That includes a season high seven last week with the return of Kenny Golladay. In 2020, the NO defense is allowing on average 12.67 targets, 9.67 catches, 96.67 yards and 1.33 TD’s per game to TE’s.

Giving you a bonus TE this week 😏

  • Rob Gronkowski: $3600 – Gronk’s price would indicate he is a #SleeperValue pick, but due to his matchup advantage, and uptick in usage – seven targets, 6/48 (and 1 RZ/EZ target in Week 3) and the absence of Godwin, I am playing contrarian with him this week. According to PFF’s TE Matchup Chart, Gronk’s +49 percent advantage makes him the best matchup of the week, his primary defender – LB Kyzir White (54.9 PFF grade) has allowed an 83 percent catch rate this season.

** DFSwithDan’s #SleeperValue DFS NFL picks **

QB

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick: $5400 – Check out what I said about Gesicki above. Seattle will most likely be leading this game by a decent margin, forcing Fitzpatrick to play from behind. This could make Gesicki, Davante Parker, and Preston Williams all good plays. I’ll have a Fitz/Gesicki lineup out there somewhere. Join me if you’ve got the stones! πŸ§—πŸ»β€β™‚οΈ

RB

  • Darrell Henderson Jr: $5800 – Darrell Henderson seems to have taken the bull by the horns and seized the starting RB job in LA. Over the last two weeks he has totaled 195 rush yards and 2 TD, to go with 3/46 through the air (including 11 RZ carries!). This juicy matchup vs a leaky NYG defense should reap massive dividends for the shifty second-year back. I’m playing him in almost every Week 4 lineup that I make thanks to his great price and projected workload.
  • Chase Edmonds: $4200 – Edmonds technically started in Week 3 and Kenyan Drake had yet another underwhelming performance. With Nuk Hopkins & Christian Kirk looking unlikely to suit up, I project Edmonds getting a larger piece of the pie. In 2019, Edmonds played a lot of slot WR and it could happen again this weekend. This is a dart throw and NOT a highly recommended play.

WR

  • AJ Green: $5500 – This is AJ Green’s week. There, I said it. No special graphs or charts to support this, just his team leading 21.43 percent target share and inevitable TD (4 RZ targets).
  • Brandin Cooks: $4500 – With Watson being my top QB play this week, I am going to pair him with Cooks to save a little $$$ – could match Watson/Fuller for more salary. Cooks has a very favorable matchup this week according to PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart. Cooks has run 48 percent of his routes as Houston’s RWR. He’ll be lined up against MIN RCB Holton Hill (sixth-highest yards per route against) which presents a +27 percent matchup advantage for Cooks.
  • Andy Isabella: $4500 – It is officially Andy Isabella szn (Chase @ff_intervention on Twitter)! Last week was a “breakout” type of game for this second-year wideout 4/47/2. However, with Hopkins a game-time decision and Christian Kirk not looking likely to play, Week 4 could be the real Isabella breakout game the truthers have been waiting on. I’m predicting six catches, 90+ yards and another two TDs. 😈

TE

  • Robert Tonyan: $3400 – This guy is quickly becoming one of my favorite sneaky plays. With touchdowns in consecutive weeks and Allen Lazard going on the shelf due to a recent core body injury & subsequent surgery, I look for Tonyan to take on an even larger role in the GB Offense. Tonyan has only drawn eight targets in 2020 (two red zone targets). He’s turned that into 7/75/2 (87.5 completion percent & converted both RZ targets for TDs).
  • Adam Trautman: $ 2500 – This is a total dart throw. I predicted a Trautman break out in Week 2 when Michael Thomas was first ruled out. That didn’t work out. Now, with both Thomas and Jared Cook ruled out, Trautman’s time could be here. If you don’t have a ton of cash leftover and like taking risks – plug Troutman into your TE spot and stack your lineup elsewhere.

Stats taken from PFF (membership) and NFLSavant (Off/Def metrics, targets & target share) websites.