Bet on That for Week 3

September 26, 2020

Week 2 was tough, however, apparently, it was somewhat predictable. I ended up 11-4 ATS going into Monday night. I finished 11-5. I am still not sure what the heck happened to the Saints.

In looking back at the picks I chose for Week 2 in here, I ended up 3-for-3 this week.

My lock (Seattle) barely covered, but their defense stepped up when it needed to and stuffed Cam Newton on the 2-yard line as the clock ran out.

I picked the NY Giants to cover (and win outright) against the Bears…and if Barkley did not leave the game, they probably would have completed the task and won. But, they also were left hanging in the red zone at the end of the game. At least they covered the 5.5 points!

In the Game of the Week, Atlanta was in a straight shootout with Dallas but ultimately ended up covering the spread.

Onto Week 3. It is definitely getting tougher and tougher to make these picks each week.

LOCK PICK OF THE WEEK

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) at Denver Broncos

Admittedly, I am a fan of Tom Brady and I am secretly hoping he has a great end of his career in Tampa. But I also have followed Tom for a while and feel like I know him better than any other QB in the league. Weeks one and two were not perfect, but week 2 was better than week 1. The pieces are starting to come together for Tampa Bay. Add in the fact that Leonard Fournette took over the lead back role in week 2, this offense is about to start clicking. They should get Chris Godwin back this week, so they will have nothing holding them back. The Tampa Bay defense has been 50/50 so far. They were ahead last week and rolling, and they allowed Carolina to get back in the game. If they play a complete game, they should hold Denver to one TD and maybe a field goal or two.

Denver is a mess. No starting QB right now, no clear cut No. 1 WR, and everyone is attacking their run game on defense because their pass game cannot beat anyone. There are a couple of things Denver has going for them. Defensively, they are one of the best in the league. And they have one of the only home field advantages this season (since there are no fans) in that they play in Denver where the air Is considerably thinner than anywhere else, which usually will exhaust a team if they are not used to it. I do not expect Denver to give up a ton, but their offense will not keep them in the game.

I see this one finishing up 24-10 Tampa Bay. Denver will likely get a turnover in Tampa’s territory which will end up in a score. Other than that, I expect Tampa Bay to steadily put up points on every other possession.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Green Bay Packers (+3) at New Orleans Saints

Picking an upset this week is not easy. I really like the favorites in all the matchups. Seems like the point spreads are pretty dead on this week. So, while I think this game will actually end in New Orleans winning by 3 (push), I feel like Green Bay has been pretty good this year and the Saints have something to prove.

The Packers lead the NFL in offense. That is surprising mostly because of their run game. They are the only team averaging over 200 yards per game so far this year and the next closest is only averaging 175 per game. That is HUGE. They have arguably the best wide receiver in the league in Davante Adams. He is having a great start to the season. While all the other receiving options are just average, Aaron Rodgers is making them all look good and the entire team is getting into the action on offense. They are a fun team to watch right now. Then, on the other side of the ball, they are not much different than the Saints. They both are about even in terms of stopping the run and pass.

The Saints WILL figure it out this season, but it is clear that they are only one dimensional with Michael Thomas out. Brees cannot get his receivers the ball down the field. Kamara is awesome and will have a big game. However, I expect this game to be similar to Monday night when the Raiders stopped the run game and Brees could not beat them with his arm. I think it will be closer because I do not see Brees turning it over this game, but ultimately, I think this game comes down to a last minute field goal and I think Green Bay will seal the deal.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs Kansas City Chiefs

Wowsas! Nothing like getting an AFC Championship preview in Week 3…I am not going to personally bet this game because I would not be surprised with any possible outcome. All we have to go on is what we have seen so far this season.

Baltimore has handled both their opponents easily in the first two weeks. Lamar Jackson would be leading the MVP race if Russell Wilson was not annihilating it in Seattle right now. I really like what they are doing and they have so many weapons on offense, it is hard to game plan for them. What is really standing out this season for the Ravens though is their defense. They are one of the top 3 defensive teams in the league and in the top 5 in both pass and run defense. They know how to keep their team in a game. While they will have their hands full with Kansas City, I think they will get more stops than Kansas City and that will be the difference in the game.

Kansas City stumbled a bit on Sunday afternoon against the Chargers. Kansas City has more weapons than Baltimore on offense, but I think they are going to struggle to move the ball based on what we have seen so far this year. The Chargers are middle of the pack this year in overall defense and they shut them down most of the game. So unless last week was a fluke…they may have given the rest of the league a blueprint on how to slow down the Chiefs! I expect a late meaningless touchdown from the Chiefs to come late, but I see Baltimore running out the clock and ultimately winning 27-21.