All Aboard the Jarwin Hype-Train

August 1, 2020

What kind of person would I be if my first fantasy article wasn’t about Blake Jarwin?

I’ve been pounding the table all off-season for him, much to the chagrin of anyone that follows me on Twitter. But I mean, a cheap, sure-fire TE1 who the team just put faith in with a contract – what’s there not to love?

I’ve given tidbits here and there as to why I’m so high on Jarwin this season, but it seems like an appropriate time to compile all of those into one concise location. I may not convince you, in which case I’ll continue stealing him at his ADP; but if I happen to get you on board, welcome to the team – we’re happy to have you.

“But the coaching change?!” Spare me. Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore will run a plethora of three wide receiver 11-personnel sets. Blake Jarwin is going to see the field plenty.

Kellan Moore and Mike McCarthy

“Too many mouths to feed.” Vacated targets seem to be the most argued topic when it comes to Blake Jarwin’s 2020 outlook. With the departures of Randall Cobb (83 targets), Jason Witten (83 targets), and Tavon Austin (24 targets) that leaves 190 targets up for grabs. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott attempted a total of 596 passes last year. If Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb all get at least 100 targets, that still leaves almost 200 targets for Prescott to spread around. I won’t even argue that Jarwin will get most of the targets vacated by the “Ghost of Witten”; but I will go as far as to assume Jarwin gets at least 50% of Witten’s target share. If we add that to the 41 targets he already saw, Jarwin would’ve hit roughly 82 targets, which would’ve put him at TE11 in target share for 2019. Too many mouths is a cop-out, don’t fall for it.

“STATS?!” You might have yelled at me if you’re already on the Jarwin Hype Train. I’m gonna yell back what I think is the most important stat (because this is my article and you can’t tell me what to do). Dak Prescott’s quarterback rating when targeting Jarwin is 126.6. *whispers* Dak’s QBR when targeting Amari Cooper is 114.5. Now, now – I know this sounds like I’m comparing the two, but I’m not. I’m simply saying Dak does well throwing to Jarwin. It’s not a stretch to assume that a quarterback will continue to look for a target that inflates his stats as well. On top of that, Jarwin’s average yards per target is 8.9 yards, which is good for 6th best when it comes to tight ends.

If you’ve made it this far, bless you. If you are still not on board, that’s your prerogative as a fantasy player. I’m not going anywhere. My conductor’s hat is still firmly planted, this train is rolling and we are always welcoming passengers.